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高盛料外匯對沖增加將推動美元續跌
阿思達克 06-25 11:53
高盛預計,由於市場波動性加劇,外國投資者將加強外匯對沖力度,美元今年餘下時間可能延續下跌勢頭,預計美元走弱、外匯對沖比率上升、未來以外匯對沖方式購買美債等投資主題將會變得更加普遍。 高盛估計,未來海外對美債的需求將會減弱,因隨著歐洲國家增加財政借貸及支出,歐洲投資者可能選擇留在當地市場,加強歐元作為替代儲備貨幣的地位,意味著美國將更多地依賴國內買家來吸納不斷增加的國債。 不過,高盛認為尋找購買國債的潛在買家不僅是美國的問題,而是全球性的問題,於2015年至2022年期間,歐洲、日本、英國及美國的私人投資者淨債券購買量近乎為零,因為央行通過量化寬鬆貨幣政策來吸納供應,而隨著央行改變政策並減少買債,令這個情況出現變化,而最大的變化不在美國,而是在日本及歐洲。
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