現代牧業(01117.HK)盈警：預計中期淨虧損8億至10億元
格隆匯6月22日丨現代牧業(01117.HK)發佈公吿，預期截至2025年6月30日止六個月期間(“本期間”)，集團將錄得淨虧損介乎人民幣8.0億元至人民幣10.0億元，而截至2024年6月30日止六個月期間(“2024年同期”)則錄得淨虧損約人民幣2.07億元。集團於本期間預計錄得現金EBITDA與2024年同期基本相約，2024年同期錄得現金EBITDA人民幣15.15億元。
於本期間，國內原料奶處於階段性供過於求的情況沒有明顯改善，國內原料奶市場售價處於低位運行，較2024年同期出現較大幅度下降，集團的原料奶售價下降幅度與市場售價基本相約。惟在集團管理團隊的努力下，通過大宗商品採購策略、精準喂飼及飼料配方調整，加強成本開支管控，公司的營運成本得到有效控制而回落，其中公斤奶的銷售成本預計較2024年同期減少人民幣0.22元╱公斤以上，同時集團的原料奶銷售量較2024年同期預計增長約10%，抵消了原料奶售價下降所帶來的影響，現金EBITDA預計與2024年同期基本相約。
然而由於以下因素的影響，集團預期本期間錄得的虧損將較2024年同期大幅增加：
於本期間，集團主動淘汰低產低效牛隻以改善牛羣結構，穩固核心牛羣，主要運營指標均有所提升。截至2025年6月30日止，集團乳牛總數預期較2024年末會略為減少，但成乳牛佔乳牛總數比例將提升至53%，平均年化成乳牛單產將突破13噸╱頭。受到淘汰牛數量增加及原料奶市場售價下降影響，乳牛公平值重估預期出現損失，最終使得乳牛公平值變動減乳牛銷售成本產生的虧損預計介乎人民幣16.5億元至人民幣18.5億元，較2024年同期增加介乎人民幣5.0億元至人民幣7.0億元。
然而乳牛公平值重估損失為非現金項目，並不會對集團的現金流量、營運資金及持續經營產生實質不利影響。集團已採取有效降本增效措施，並已取得顯著的成本節約效益。集團相信，隨着乳品消費需求回暖，原料奶市場供需將趨穩平衡，原料奶市場售價預期企穩回升，將顯著提升集團的盈利水平，實現高質量可持續增長，為股東持續創造價值。
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