You are browsing the Hong Kong website, Regulated by Hong Kong SFC (CE number: BJA907). Investment is risky and you must be cautious when entering the market.
《大行》摩通:泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)有五個催化劑 近期股價疲軟可「抄底」
阿思達克 06-23 13:00
摩根大通研究報告指,儘管官媒《人民日報》發表評論要求加強盲盒監管,但泡泡瑪特(09992.HK)主要目標客群為18至45歲,與主要面向中小學生的盲卡不同年齡層,預期零售商將更嚴格執行年齡控制要求,但這也不太可能影響泡泡瑪特的銷售,予泡泡瑪特「增持」評級。 摩通表示,泡泡瑪特股價過去5個交易日下跌14%(恆指同期下跌3%),近期股價疲軟為「抄底」機會。該行近期將泡泡瑪特列入正面催化劑觀察名單,原因包括:(1)其7月中旬可能發布盈利預喜(摩通預測2025上半年盈利人民幣35億元,超過2024年全年);(2) 即將推出的《Labubu & Friends》動畫(6月已註冊版權,或配合新產品發布);(3) 8月推出Labubu x Uniqlo T恤;(4)新開設的兩家「POPOP」珠寶店將售賣更多Labubu產品,另有其他IP商品如SkullPanda、Molly及Dimoo;(5)可能推出互動/AI玩具(公司目前未披露;近期主要線上市場已出現會說話/唱歌/走路/跳舞的仿冒「Lafufu」產品)。 摩通認為,泡泡瑪特引領中國快速增長的IP商品市場。其公司擁有強大的100多個自有及授權IP組合,經營521家自有零售店和2,472個機器人商店,遍布30多個國家,並充分利用主要線上平台。摩通看好泡泡瑪特的主要原因包括:(1)其強大的IP產品(負擔得起的商品,建立情感與社交聯繫,需求與IP成功推出高度相關而非GDP,Labubu成為正在崛起的「超級IP」);(2)其全球擴張野心與執行能力(2025年海外銷售按年增長214%,2025至2027年年均複合增長率38%,預計2027年海外銷售貢獻67%)。 摩通預測,泡泡瑪特2024至2027年銷售及盈利年均複合增長率分別為51%和65%,淨利潤率達31.9%,淨資產收益率達45.9%(2027年),受強大IP、新店開設、生產力提升、品類擴展和利潤率擴張推動。該行對泡泡瑪特的每股盈利預估比市場共識高出近25%。 摩通使用市盈增長率(PEG)方法,得出泡泡瑪特2026年6月目標價330港元,基準為1.5倍市盈增長。相較之下,摩通研究範圍的領先中國消費品公司的PEG為1.9倍,以及全球領先消費品公司的PEG為2至3倍。摩通目標價值意味著泡泡瑪特2026年預測市盈率35.6倍。
Follow us
Find us on Facebook, Twitter , Instagram, and YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!
Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.
uSMART
Wealth Growth Made Easy
Open Account