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《大行》交銀國際升中國燃氣(00384.HK)目標價至6.7元 維持「中性」評級
阿思達克 06-23 12:25
交銀國際研究報告指, 中國燃氣(00384.HK)將於6月27日公布2025財年全年業績,預期公司全年核心利潤按年下降6.4%至37億港元,受下半財年內暖冬影響,公司有4至5個月售氣量偏弱(較12月年結的同業受影響時間更長),估計公司全年零售氣量按年微增約1%(下半年僅按年增長0.5%),低於公司指引的2%。其中,居民及工商業售氣分別按年增長2%和0.5%,售氣毛差應可達公司指引的每立方米0.53元人民幣。 交銀也預期中國燃氣末期分紅維持在0.35港元(全年派息0.5港元);同時,預計公司在合營公司的應收款回收或持續取得進展,自由現金流有望維持在46億港元的水平。 展望2026財年,交銀認為零售氣量按年增長有望回升至2%,售氣毛差提升至每立方米0.54元人民幣的水平。另外,目前交銀預期中國燃氣對項目收購仍然採取保守態度,2026財年資本開支按年仍有下降的可能,因此自由現金流仍可維持在較佳水平。 交銀下調中國燃氣2025財年盈利預測約2%,以反映暖冬對售氣量的影響。預期2026至2027財年盈利分別按年增長8.9%和5.5%。估值方面,交銀調整基準年至2026財年,上調估值標準至9.5倍,相較該行覆蓋的其他燃氣公司(10至11倍的估值標準)仍有折讓,目標價上調至6.7港元(原5.92港元),維持「中性」評級。交銀認為公司目前超過6%的股息率有一定防守性,若未來在盈利構成、自由現金流穩定性及分紅政策有更明確的方向,這些將是該行上調評級的關鍵依據。
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