大新:下半年恆指有望達25,000點 樓價全年跌5%
大新金融集團首席經濟及策略師溫嘉煒指,中美貿易戰雖然稍爲緩和,惟前景仍具不確定性,預料會繼續爲香港外貿表現帶來挑戰;受惠中美暫時下調雙方關稅稅率,預測今年香港經濟增長2.4%,假設美國關稅水平基本維持,恆生指數下半年有望挑戰25,000點,20,800點附近或有一定支持,高股息率、內需消費及創科板塊前景或較正面。他又料下半年美聯儲將減息2次,每次25個基點。
溫嘉煒表示,本港按揭利率從高位顯着回落,同時租金回報率逐步回升,有助紓緩樓價下行壓力。然而,一手住宅潛在供應充裕,料不會在短期內快速消化,加上貿易戰爲經濟前景帶來不明朗因素,預計2025年全年樓價可能跌約5%。
零售市道方面,本港大型體育場館落成並陸續舉行多項大型活動,預計可帶動部分零售消費活動,加上香港股市近期反覆回升,短線或有助提振消費氣氛。
內地方面,溫嘉煒認爲內需有放緩跡象,貿易戰帶來的不明朗性短線打擊企業的投資及生產意欲。出口短線可望保持增長,主要原因是企業部分出口商品轉向東盟等其他地區,抵銷了部分美國出口下跌的影響。在內地放寬貨幣政策及中央承諾要實施更加積極的財政政策刺激內需下,集團預期今年內地經濟增長4.4%。他又料內地下半年或再減息降準一次。
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