嘉信理財料關稅未來數月影響美國經濟 或推高通脹
美國聯儲局公布議息結果,維持利率不變。嘉信理財香港顧問林長傑表示,美國聯儲局將利率維持在4.25%至4.5%不變,一如市場預期。更大的焦點在於,政治預期與貨幣政策目標之間存在明顯的分歧,聯儲局持續採取觀望態度,以評估關稅對整體經濟的影響,然後才採取行動。
林長傑表示,上周公佈的消費者價格指數(CPI)數據好於預期,但這並未為減息提供有力支持,令包括美國總統特朗普在內的鴿派人士感到失望,他曾多次呼籲大幅減息100個基點,以緩解美國債務的償還壓力。
林指,雖然5月CPI錄得2.4%是低於預期,市場預測的數字是2.5%,而且勞動市場仍然穩健,但聯儲局似乎對新興風險保持警惕。10%的基準關稅,以及對中國進口商品更高的關稅,預計在未來數月將逐步影響經濟,並可能推高通脹。此外,聯儲局偏好的通脹指標——個人消費支出(PCE)價格指數,也預計將從2025年4月錄得的2.1%上升。
此外,市場也將密切關注華盛頓的反應,因為特朗普總統持續對聯儲局主席鮑威爾施壓,要求他採取行動。投資者將注視聯儲局能否維持其獨立性。這種角力若進一步升級,可能為美國資產增添額外的風險溢價。
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