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恆生薛俊升:受資金流向影響 短期港元利率或較波動
阿思達克 06-19 12:42
恆生銀行經濟研究部主管兼首席經濟師薛俊升表示,美國聯儲局一如市場預期維持目標利率不變,認爲目前美國經濟表現不俗,惟未來不確定因素頗多,因此無需急於調整政策。從聯儲局主席鮑威爾於議息會議後的講話可見,貿易政策可能導致美國消費及投資放緩,以及失業率上升,但較難估計具體影響。同樣,相關措施或令美國通脹短暫上揚。該行相信聯儲局希望從未來數月的數據先行確定美國經濟及通脹的軌跡,才決定下一步行動的去向及時機。這不確定性也反映於聯儲局官員最新的經濟及利率預測,特別是官員對於前景頗爲分化的看法。 對於香港而言,受資金流向影響,短期港元利率或較爲波動,如果未來兩年美國利率趨勢保持向下,港元利率可望跟隨,這有助香港經濟保持增長。該行維持今年香港經濟增長2.5%的預測。
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