瑞銀料內地第二季GDP按年增長將保持4.5至5%
瑞銀亞洲經濟研究主管及首席中國經濟學家汪濤表示,由於去年基數較低、且目前增長勢頭依然較為穩健,預計第二季GDP按年增長將保持在4.5至5%。預計下半年增長勢頭將顯著放緩,不過額外的政策支持措施或有助於穩定四季度經濟增長。當前該行對於2025年4%的GDP增長基準預測面臨更多上行風險。
她指,在搶出口相關活動和計劃中政策支持措施的推動下,今年前5個月出口、工業生產、社零和固定資產投資的增長保持相對穩健。不過,未來隨著搶出口過後的反向調整顯現,計劃中的財政補貼可能接近尾聲,認為下半年經濟增長將面臨更多下行壓力。此外,房地產市場持續低迷,房價下降預期依然偏強,居民購房意願走弱。
因此,該行預計下半年政策支持仍待加碼,包括進一步降息20-30個基點和出臺額外財政刺激政策(佔GDP比重0.5-1個百分點)。後者可能包括創設新型政策性銀行金融工具(規模或達5,000億元人民幣)。鑒於年初至今增長較為穩健,該行認為額外政策支持可能取決於未來的經濟資料表現,或在第三季度末前後出台。
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