《大行》大和:電價下降對潤電(00836.HK)造成盈利壓力 評級下調至「持有」
大和研究報告指,華潤電力(00836.HK)股價自3月中旬以來上漲了9%,認為其分拆華潤新能源首次公開募股(IPO)帶來的估值提升,及點火價差擴大的預期已基本反映在股價中。2025年下半年,該行預計電價下降將持續對華潤電力盈利造成壓力,因此將其評級從「跑贏大市」下調至「持有」。
報告提及,6月至今,江蘇省的月度電價較去年同期下跌24%,從每兆瓦時410元人民幣(下同)降至313元。華潤電力因其在江蘇省的產能佔比高達17%,成為主要受影響對象。此外,華潤電力在廣東省的佔比為9%,該省在2025年前五個月電價也較去年同期下降8%至23%。2025年下半年,鑑於水電可能表現強勁進一步加劇電力供應過剩,大和預計這一逆風將持續,華潤電力的31%月度和現貨交易預計將受到這一趨勢的影響。因此,該行將華潤電力的2025至2026年收入預測下調1%至2%。
該行又將華潤電力2025至2026年的每股盈利預測下調9%至13%,根據其總和估值法(SOTP)中,將燃煤和可再生能源的目標市賬率,分別從0.88倍和0.65倍下調至0.8倍和0.6倍,以反映可再生能源業務可能的估值下調,目標價維持19.5元不變。
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