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《大行》瑞銀:投資者對騰訊音樂(01698.HK)與喜馬拉雅合併喜憂參半
阿思達克 06-11 11:54
瑞銀發表研究報告指,騰訊音樂(01698.HK)宣布與內地在線音頻平台喜馬拉雅達成合併協議,交易價格包括:1)12.6億美元現金;2)發行相當於騰訊音樂交易完成前已發行股份總數5.1986%的A類股份;3)向創始股東額外發行0.37%的股份。瑞銀指,根據騰訊音樂股票最新收盤價,估計總交易金額約為28.6億美元,交易完成後,喜馬拉雅將成為騰訊音樂的全資子公司,交易時間表因監管審批及其他條件尚不確定。 報告提及,自媒體4月報道此潛在交易以來,投資者反饋喜憂參半。積極方面:1))投資者對在線音頻行業的整合感到鼓舞,認為騰訊音樂將鞏固其領導地位並擴大市場覆蓋;2)騰訊音樂的在線音樂業務與喜馬拉雅的長篇音頻業務或產生聯乘效應,包括擴大用戶基礎、擁有更豐富的內容庫,以及通過更豐富的內容產品,促進超級會員(SVIP)滲透率的潛在優勢;3) 一些投資者認為此策略與全球同行一致,例如Spotify(SPOT.US)對長篇音頻業務(例如播客、有聲書)的持續投資有助於提升用戶參與度和收入增長。 至於謹慎方面:1)許多投資者認為估值缺乏吸引力,根據喜馬拉雅2023年最後公開的財務數據,估值隱含3.3倍市銷率和91.6倍市盈率;2)即使融入騰訊音樂生態系統,長篇音頻業務在付費用戶轉化和貨幣化方面可能持續面臨挑戰;3)由於喜馬拉雅最新財務數據缺乏透明度,對騰訊音樂的財務影響不確定,引發對增長和利潤率稀釋的擔憂。 該行對騰訊音樂評級和目標價進行審查,待進一步分析,現將12個月目標價定為18美元,評級「買入」。
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