《大行》大摩:首季MSCI中國指數企業盈利續符預期
摩根士丹利表示,MSCI中國指數第一季度企業盈利連續兩個季度表現符合預期。在收入方面,公司數量計低於市場預期16.6%,較2024年第四季度的遜預期1%有所惡化。
從行業觀察,房地產行業按公司數量及加權盈利均錄得淨超預期表現。通訊服務、消費品、必需消費品、金融及醫療保健行業按公司數量或加權盈利錄得淨超預期表現。能源、資訊科技及公用事業行業按公司數量錄得淨低於預期表現,但按加權盈利則符合預期。
大摩表示,已上調2025年及2026年的盈利增長預測,以反映關稅休戰及未來12至18個月人民幣兌美元的輕微升值。摩根士丹利中國經濟團隊預測的宏觀GDP增長展望略有改善(2025年及2026年分別從4.2%和4.0%修訂至4.5%和4.2%)。人民幣兌美元升值也應有助於特別是恆生指數、恆生國企指數及MSCI中國指數,因盈利的換算效應帶來正面影響。
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