《大行》高盛:港銀同業拆息持續偏低 增加盈利交付風險
高盛發表研究報告指,港銀的同業拆息持續處於低位,與美元利率差距較大。由於約一半的銀行體系存款及貸款為港元,另約30%至40%為美元,其餘則為其他貨幣,若將這個組合應用於香港本地銀行的盈利,並考慮到港銀同業拆息相對較大的跌幅,將令淨息差和撥備前經營溢利風險上升。
該行表示,注意到銀行已因同業拆息下跌而調低定期存款利率。在利率未變的情況下,CASA比率約為40至50%,而整個定期存款重新定價需時3至6個月。不過,與港銀同業拆息掛鉤的香港按揭貸款及本地企業貸款將於一個月內重新定價,從而增加第二季及第三季淨息差不足的風險。該行維持匯控(00005.HK)的「買入」評級及東亞銀行(00023.HK)的「沽售」評級。
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