格隆匯發佈美團首次覆蓋報吿
格隆匯研究院發佈美團(3690.HK)首次覆蓋報吿《Navigating Short-Term Turbulence: Defending Share, Expanding Horizons》。美團於2025年5月26日港股盤後公佈2025年第一季度業績,整體表現符合市場預期。核心本地商業業務方面:(1)外賣業務:日均訂單量同比增長9%-10%,儘管平均客單價(AOV)略有下降,主要受更具性價比的產品組合(如“拼好飯”和“神槍手”)佔比提升的影響。得益於訂單密度提升與成本優化,外賣業務的單位經濟效益(UE)同比改善。(2)閃購業務:每日訂單量接近1,100萬,同比增速約為30%。其中,3C、電器、美粧等非餐飲品類同比增長超過60%,成為新增長驅動。(3)到店酒旅:交易總額(GTV)同比增長超過30%,經營利潤率環比維持穩定,反映出線下消費場景的持續復甦和運營效率的穩步提升。新業務方面:(1)隨着生態建設投資趨於理性,“美團優選”虧損環比有所收窄;(2)海外品牌Keeta訂單量與GTV持續強勁增長,已成為香港最大的外賣平台,並完成對沙特阿拉伯9個城市的全面覆蓋。公司計劃進一步拓展至巴西市場,預計未來5年將投入10億美元。中東擴張與無人機配送構成美團中長期發展新動能。Keeta於2024年10月進入沙特市場,從利雅得起步,並在2025年初快速拓展至6個以上城市。面對Talabat、Deliveroo及Hunger Station等競爭對手,Keeta通過“首單95折”和“永久免費配送”等激進補貼策略快速擴大用户規模。上線三個月內,Keeta躋身沙特食品配送APP下載量前三,市場份額突破10%。此外,無人機配送的推進顯著提升履約效率與成本控制能力。截至2024年底,美團共有約745萬名騎手。第三方機構測算,若三分之一配送任務由無人機完成,可使整體履約成本下降25%-30%,長期節省支出規模可達數十億美元。短期來看,外賣補貼對美團2Q25利潤率構成壓力。受市場競爭加劇及補貼策略影響,預計2025年第二季度核心本地商業板塊的營業利潤將同比顯著下降。儘管補貼強度及競爭週期的不確定性仍在,但短期內對收入增速與利潤率形成壓制。預計外賣與閃購訂單增長將分別放緩至4%與30%,單位經濟效益或面臨下行壓力。在AI佈局方面,美團持續加碼投入以提升組織效率。2024年第四季度,美團發佈AI戰略規劃,推出自主研發的大模型“LongCat(龍貓)”及系列AI工具,包括編程助手、文檔生成、圖像與視頻處理工具,旨在提升內部運營效率。面向用户的整合型AI助手也計劃於年內上線,定位為“數字生活祕書”。同時,公司加快GPU算力部署,已投入數十億元資本支出,確保大模型訓練與推理所需的計算資源。報吿中英文全文可從格隆匯官網及App、彭博終端、S&P Capital IQ、LSEG Refinitiv、FactSet、Morningstar、AlphaSense等渠道獲取。
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