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研報掘金丨申萬宏源:中國船舶業績符合預期,維持“買入”評級

申萬宏源研究指出,中國船舶(600150.SH)24年歸母36.14億元,接近預增範圍中值,同比增長22%;2025Q1歸母11.27億元,同比增長181%,略高於預增範圍中值,符合預期。業績符合預期,維持“買入”評級。訂單交付:據年報,2024年公司交付民品船舶93 艘/721.34萬載重噸,噸位數完成年計劃的112.74%。手持訂單:據年報,公司2024 年末民船手持訂單金額2170億元,據克拉克森數據及申萬測算,當前中國船舶手持訂單金額約310億美元,與年報披露值相近。成本端:按訂單交付前1.5年購置鋼材倒推,2024、2025年交付訂單平均鋼材價格預計同比下降20%、6%,收入成本雙向改善,利潤彈性逐步驗證。301對船廠影響較原方案大幅減弱,新簽訂單量及船價有望企穩上行。

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