研報掘金|中金:預計首季內銀股淨利潤按年增長1% 建議關注常熟銀行、寧波銀行
中金髮表報吿,預計首季內地上市銀行營收按年下跌4%,淨利潤按年增長1%,盈利增速較去年繼續走弱。該行指,銀行資產規模擴張速度放緩,部分銀行或出現縮表。而息差繼續收窄,財富管理收入疲弱,拖累營收表現。考慮到貸款重定價仍在發生、新發放貸款和新投放債券利率下行、存款定期化現象仍然存在,預計首季上市銀行淨息差按季收窄6個基點,對應息差按年降幅在25個基點,拖累淨利息收入按年下跌5%。此外,因基金和保險代銷費率下調、居民金融資產配置風險偏好仍低,預計淨手續費收入按年下跌10%。其他非息收入受益於市場利率下行,預計按年增長11%。中金預計,上市銀行去年末撥備覆蓋率242%,與監管要求的最低線120%至150%仍有一段距離,存在支撐淨利潤的空間,也是支撐股息穩定的基本要素之一。中金指,雖然上市銀行盈利增速預期走弱,但股息穩定性、可持續經營能力對股價表現形成一定支撐。建議關注首季業績預期較好質量較優的常熟銀行、寧波銀行;國有大行因其穩定性仍然存在配置價值,目前A股股息率在5%至5.5%,H股股息率在7.3%至9%;部分優質地區龍頭區域行股息率亦存在吸引力,包括成都銀行、江蘇銀行、南京銀行等;業績自底部企穩的渝農商行、民生銀行。
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