大行評級|摩根大通:維持國壽“增持”評級 風險回報狀況改善
摩根大通發表研究報吿指,預計國壽今年淨利潤按年升4%至480億元,派息0.51元,股息率6釐。該行提到,國壽未在2023財年業績中披露新業務合約服務利潤率(CSM)、準備金明細及CSM變動情況。因此,該行會根據新業務價值來估算其新業務CSM,並料2024至26財年新業務CSM分別為430億、500億、580億元。摩根大通相信,對內險行業的改革議程將為國壽等國有優質保險公司帶來更多利益。然而,自2023年起採用IFRS-17後,疲弱的股市走勢在很大程度上使公司盈利基礎受壓。同時,不斷上升的資產風險憂慮或成為拖累股價的主要因素。由於國壽的風險回報狀況改善,該行維持其“增持”評級,目標價15港元。
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