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美聯測量:下年度8幅住宅地估值共188.8億 新增2幅沙田地皮料受捧
阿思達克 03-01 08:45
2024至2025財政年度賣地計劃將提供8幅住宅用地,料可提供約5,690伙新供應,而全年度潛在土地供應則可興建約15,150個單位,較2023至2024年度溍在供應20,550伙按年減少約26%。 美聯測量師行董事林子彬表示,是次新一份賣地表涉及8幅住宅地,但當中有6幅為滾存項目,而新增的2幅的沙田項目料較受市場歡迎,其規模及投資額適中,鄰近港鐵(00066.HK)及區內具一定配套,故料有一定吸引力,並估計是次推出的8幅住宅地皮合共估計值約188.8億元。至於市建局的3幅地皮中,九龍城項目及旺角山東街項目均料受歡迎,而曾流標的觀塘項目雖然將加入住宅元素,惟其規模龐大,若以單一發展將涉及龐大投資額,料入標反應將有壓力。 新年度賣地計劃的首季中,將推出新增的沙田小瀝源源順圍項目,地皮估計可建樓面面積約為148,543平方呎,由於鄰近港鐵第一城站,交通較為方便,該區發展成熟,具有一定社區配套,加上規模適中,投資額及風險相對較低,故料受發展商歡迎,惟參考近期市況及高息環境,料出價傾向審慎,若以每呎樓面地價5,000元計算,估值約7.43億元。至於另一幅同位於沙田小瀝源的沙田圍路與小瀝源路交界項目,發展規模相對較大,但仍然屬規模適中的發展,估計可建樓面面積約為306,774平方呎,若以每呎樓面地價4,500元計算,估值 約13.8億元。 此外,其他滾存的6幅住宅地皮,以啟德第4B區5號地盤項目較為矚目,相信為各幅項目中地價最大的一幅住宅地皮,估計可建樓面面積約為1,130,220平方呎,若以每呎樓面地價6,000元計算,估值約67.81億元。不過,林子彬指出,該6幅滾存地皮對發展商的吸引力稍遜,因為多幅地皮位處較偏遠地區,例如東涌106A區地皮,該區屬初期發展,即使有海景,惟附近配套未成熟,料風險較高。至於曾流標的赤柱環角道項目為大型豪宅地皮,但發展規模及投資額龐大,需視乎撤辣後的豪宅市況,項目仍存在一定流標風險。而青山公路掃管笏段及啟德項目料將以中小型戶發展,但項目亦是規模大及投資成本較高,故相信入標反應仍然具有挑戰。 至於新增的1幅商業地皮位處石門,規模較細,估計可建樓面面積約為419,258平方呎,若以每呎樓面地價2,500元計算,估值約10.48億元。而滾存的啟德商業地皮,估計可建樓面面積約為863,811平方呎,規模較大,附近缺乏商業配套,若以每呎樓面地價4,000元計算,估值約34.55億元。由於目前市場對商業項目的前景較保守及觀望,相信推出時的反應仍然會受壓。至於新增的洪水橋工業地,估計可建樓面面積高達約為5,854,540平方呎,發展規模相當龐大,發展條件亦較複雜,相信會以用家對項目興趣較大。 林子彬稱,由於目前息口仍然高企,加上發展商仍有不少新供應及貨尾單位可供市場發售,在新供應及土地儲備充裕的情況下,相信發展商投地意欲,仍然會傾向保守,需視乎撤辣後樓市價量的變化,另減息的時間表亦需考慮料來年度的住宅供應量是否達標仍具挑戰。
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