還能升3.9%？高盛再次上調標普500的目標點位，業績將是主要驅動力
美股接連創新高後，還能繼續升？最新，高盛上調了標普500指數今年年底的目標點位至5200點。
高盛最新預計，標準普爾500指數將在今年年底上升至5200點，此前12月的預測值為5100點，上調了約2%。
上週五，標普500指數收於5005.57點，這意味着新目標較該收盤價還有3.9%的上升空間。
這已經不是高盛第一次上調標普500指數的目標點位了。去年11 月，高盛預計，標普500指數到今年年底將達到 4700點，隨後12月上調至5100點，如今又上調至5200點。
目前，5200點是華爾街最高的目標位之一，此外，還有包括Fundstrat Global Advisors的Tom Lee和Oppenheimer Asset Management首席策略師John Stoltzfus都看好美股表現。
美國銀行等也表示願意提高年底目標點位。截至1月中旬，近十幾位股票策略師的標普500指數的目標中值為4950點。
美國銀行的Savita Subramanian表示：“短期內標普500指數面臨的最大風險是上行，我們5000點的目標在短期內可能太低了。”
就連華爾街知名的大空頭、摩根士丹利的Michael Wilson也預計，美國股市的升幅將擴大到大型科技股以外的領域。
不過，他預計，今年年底的目標值仍為4500點，相比上週五收盤價有約10%的下跌空間。
驅動力來自業績
對於上調的原因，David Kostin等分析師在週五一份報吿中寫道：“利潤預期的提高是此次上調的推動因素。”
高盛將2025年每股收益預測從之前的237美元-250美元上調至241美元-256美元，分析師的平均預測中值為235美元。
這反映了高盛對信息技術和通信服務行業“更強勁的增長和更高的利潤”預期，這些行業包含科技七巨頭中的蘋果、微軟、英偉達、Alphabet和Meta。
高盛的策略師預計，標普500指數及其同等權重指數的估值倍數將保持在接近當前水平，市盈率分別為20倍、16 倍，盈利增長成為今年繼續上升的主要驅動力。
數據顯示，在美聯儲降息預期和AI樂觀情緒提振科技股的推動下，標普500指數今年上升了4.9%，500家成分股的利潤預計到2024年將比一年前增長8.8%。
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