《大行報告》匯豐研究降恆指今年底目標至19,300點 悲觀情境下中資H股或再跌15%
匯豐環球研究上周五(15日)發表亞洲市場季度報告,料亞洲股市將於2024年受惠於強勁的全球宏觀順風,尤其是若中國經濟呈復甦的話,料中國和印度將在2024年推動亞洲股市上漲12%。該行對中資股H股「增持」評級,予富時中國指數2024年年底目標由24,800點下調至23,130,潛在升幅20%。
該行予富時香港指數、恆指及國指「中性」評級,下調對恆指2024年年底目標,由19,890點降至19,300點,潛在升幅13.2%;國指2024年年底目標由7,190點降至7,160點,潛在升幅24.1%。
匯豐環球研究表示,中資股H股可能面對兩種情況。投資者情緒惡化以及美國退休基金可能進一步減少對中國股票的投資可能仍是一個懸而未決的問題。因此該行看到兩種可能的情況出現。第一是按悲觀情境,此情況假設企業每股盈利無增長,估值回落至2022年10月回低點,意味著較目前水準下降15%。第二是更樂觀的情境,此情況假設企業每股盈利增長16%,估值恢復到過去五年平均市盈率12倍,意味著上漲空間為45%。該行料上述每種情況機率各為50%。
匯豐環球指中國股市的一個關鍵風險仍然是意外的政策公告,最近在有關網遊政策的意外公告中可見一斑。
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