印度將成爲蘋果的下一個中國市場?
伯恩斯坦在重新審視蘋果(AAPL.US)在新興市場(尤其是印度)的進展時表示,強勁的季度業績使新興市場成爲投資者更關注的焦點。
伯恩斯坦分析師 Toni Sacconaghi Jr.指出,過去10年,蘋果在新興市場的銷售額佔總銷售額的比例一直相當平穩,尤其是與其他消費/奢侈品牌相比,這一比例看起來“處於中等水平,因此不存在明顯的結構性滲透不足”。
伯恩斯坦發現,iPhone 的市場份額往往與消費者的整體消費能力相關,這表明隨着消費者錢包的擴大,蘋果在新興經濟體的份額應該會增加。
伯恩斯坦估計,印度約佔iPhone總銷量的2.5%,約佔蘋果總銷售額的1.5%-2%。隨着經濟的強勁增長,未來五年的年增長率將達到20%,相當於公司每年再增長70個基點。
Sacconaghi表示:“樂觀的情況當然是,印度將成爲蘋果的下一個中國。”“如果是這樣,我們的分析表明,印度的年增長率將超過40%,未來五年iPhone銷量和公司銷售額的年增長率將增加200個基點以上。”
但他對印度的增長路徑是否會追隨中國表示懷疑——中國對蘋果(以及更普遍的高端品牌)的重要性“超出了GDP增長的範圍”。經濟學家謹慎地指出,印度可能更難達到中國實現的7% -9%的持續經濟增長,原因包括印度的中央計劃經濟程度較低,以及低製造業就業率和低女性就業率(24%,而中國爲61%)。
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