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美國債務上限“X日”究竟是哪天?這是各大行的預測

美國債務上限成爲懸在市場上方的一把達摩克利斯之劍。2011年,債務上限僵局曾導致標普500下跌17%,最終花了6個月時間才收復失地。當美國財務部所有可騰挪的資金被用盡後,可能面臨技術性違約的時刻,也就是所謂的“X 日”(X-date)。

(圖片來源:彭博)
(圖片來源:彭博)

以下是各大行對“X日”的判斷:

巴克萊:在6月4日和12日之間;

德銀:基本情境是6月初,樂觀的情境是7月底;

摩根大通:6月7日之前財政部將耗盡避免技術性違約的所有可用資源;

美國銀行:由於財政部高於預期的融資需求和低於預期的剩餘非常措施,X-date 與耶倫的指引時間一致 (注:耶倫近日警告稱,財政部最早將在6月1日耗盡資金);

高盛:財政部的時間表提高了短期延期的可能性,可能會延期至 7 月底或9月底;

花旗:預計財政部長耶倫將在下週將 X-date 推遲到 6 月 15 日,從而在6 月達成臨時協議,9 月晚些時候達成全面協議。

(圖片來源:彭博)
(圖片來源:彭博)
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