機構:港股市場短期可能缺乏方向,但仍然存在結構性機會
來源:中金研究
五一假期前,海外中資股市場延續近期的疲弱走勢,使得4月全月港股市場整體表現不盡如人意,其中恆生指數和恆生科技指數分別下跌2.5%和9.3%。
中金公司在近期持續提示投資者市場可能缺乏趨勢,以震盪盤整爲主,主要是因爲部分投資者對國內增長“後勁”的持續性仍持謹慎觀點,且臨近五一假期以及重要政策時間到來(包括一季度中央政治局會議以及美聯儲5月議息會議決議),投資者觀望情緒濃重,等待更明確的政策與增長修復信號的到來。
進入5月,隨着政治局會議落下帷幕,一些情形也逐漸清晰,但市場此前期待的系統性方向變化短期內可能也難以出現。
首先,政策層面或更加關注中長期目標、而非短期內總量政策的大幅加碼。其次,增長方面經濟修復動能持續,尤其是線下消費領域,但製造業、房地產、甚至出口的短期環比動能也從高點趨緩。最後,海外方面,美聯儲接下來的利率決策、美國衰退壓力和銀行業風波等擾動仍值得關注。
綜合目前環境,中金預計市場在指數層面可能依然缺乏方向,類似2019年下半年時的情形,但並不缺少結構性機會,仍然建議採取一直推薦的“啞鈴型”配置策略(提高分紅比例潛力的國企+互聯網和科技等高景氣度行業,一季度政治局會議對平臺經濟特別提出“鼓勵探索創新”;而醫療保健板塊可能要待美聯儲寬鬆轉向更爲明確後會有更大彈性)。
中期而言,該機構仍然看好港股前景。雖然上行空間短期受盈利增長空間約束,但下行空間也相對有限,因此任何潛在明顯回調可能都是更好的再佈局時機。
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