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新一輪金融危機在敲門!
uSMART盈立智投 03-29 20:38

因硅谷銀行突然倒閉而引發的金融危機仍在繼續。儘管監管機構仍在努力解決當前的銀行危機,但特斯拉首席執行官、億萬富翁埃隆·馬斯克警告稱,金融系統和經濟已經面臨新的問題,即商業房地產債務和抵押貸款。

早些時候,媒體Kobeissi Letter發佈了令人擔憂的商業房地產數據。

Kobeissi Letter表示:“未來5年,將有超過2.5萬億美元的商業房地產債務到期。”“這遠遠超過了歷史上任何5年的時期。與此同時,房價上漲了一倍多,商業地產的入住率只有60% -70%。”

Kobeissi Letter補充說,“對這些貸款進行再融資將非常昂貴,並可能導致下一場重大危機。”最糟糕的是“70%的商業房地產貸款由小銀行擁有”。

報告總結道:“快速上升的利率給每個人都上了寶貴的一課。沒有‘免費’的錢。”

馬斯克同意這一觀點。“這是目前最嚴重的、迫在眉睫的問題,抵押貸款也是如此,”這位億萬富翁表示。

利率上升使得幾乎所有貸款的還款都變得更加昂貴。在商業房地產領域,許多浮動利率借款人的月供已經大幅增加。爲了繼續償還貸款,他們必須動用現金流。對於利率固定的借款人來說,當他們必須再融資時,賬單將飆升。

據Trepp稱,問題在於,商業房地產領域的大多數貸款都是由資產規模不到2500億美元的銀行發放的。許多專家擔心,許多借款人會違約,這對小型銀行來說將是一個巨大的問題,因爲它們將不得不降低這些貸款的價值。

經濟學家Erica Xuewei Jiang、Gregor Matvos、Tomasz Piskorski和Amit Seru最近在一篇論文中稱:“考慮到持有至到期的貸款組合,美國銀行系統的資產市值比賬面價值低2萬億美元。所有銀行按市值計價的資產平均下降了10%,最後第5個百分位數的銀行的資產下降了20%。”

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