老虎證券料今年市場進入淺衰退期 港股看好旅遊及餐飲行業
老虎證券(香港)機構部執行董事陳紀賢預期,今年市場進入淺衰退期,不過存在經濟週期錯配:歐美經濟逐步進入衰退,中國經濟則強勁復甦。資產配置方面,他建議投資者先採取保守策略,把資金投放到較穩定的大中華區的股票、黃金、美債、美股中的小型價值股,或者金銀礦等產品。
同時,他提醒投資者若市場對中國復甦的期望過高,推動中國資產漲幅過分膨脹,資金或將階段性回流至美股和美國公司債。他續稱,假設美國經濟硬著陸,歐美國家經濟衰退,中國經濟復甦未如預期,全球市場可能出現崩盤。之後美國聯儲局或會加速減息,將帶動美債、黃金和依賴流動性強的大中華區成長股受益。
港股方面,隨著香港和內地全面通關,將可提振中港兩地生產活動、帶動消費氣氛回暖,建議重點關注旅遊和餐飲行業,隨著業績持續改善,預計這些板塊今年還會有一定上升空間。
陳紀賢表示,今年初恆指估值處於低位,恆生科技指數中的互聯網股票,按2023年盈利預期計算的預測市盈率只有14倍左右,低於全球互聯網公司的平均值22,所以資金面如果能持續改善的話,很可能會推動港股整體估值的均值回歸。
另外,基於去年年底中央經濟工作會議提出要大力發展數字經濟,資本支持平台企業,加上遊戲版號重新開放及房地產「三支箭」政策出台,他估計內地當局將會放鬆對互聯網、房地產的監管力度。雖然監管有所放鬆,但互聯網股票、內房股過去的高利潤、高增長模式已難以達到過去30%至40%的慣性增長,未來增幅或降至約15%。受此影響,港股未來一段時間內,恐怕回不去2018年初和2021年初時的巔峰水平。
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