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美銀:標普500將下跌10%
uSMART盈立智投 01-13 20:04

美國銀行策略師Michael Hartnett表示,美股將迎來新一輪下跌,最終將在今年下半年經濟狀況企穩時反彈。美國銀行預計標普500指數將下跌近10%至3600點,然後反彈17%至4200點。

Hartnett表示,在經濟和盈利衰退期間進行交易“需要耐心”。“痛苦交易”將持續到“金髮姑娘”經濟的信號出現,即高增長和低通脹並存,而且利率可以保持在較低水平。

由於中國經濟重新開放、通脹降溫以及市場預期各大央行將放緩緊縮步伐,全球股市在今年年初上漲。儘管如此,在高利率的背景下,策略師們越來越青睞歐洲和亞洲股票,而非美國股票。Hartnett表示,上週歐洲股市跑贏美國股市是“一個時代的開始”,而高盛策略師們則表示,中國股市還有更大的上漲空間。

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花旗援引EPFR Global數據稱,截至1月11日的一週,全球股票基金有72億美元資金流入。美國和歐洲基金的贖回額分別爲26億美元和5億美元。

巴克萊銀行策略師Emmanuel Cau表示,市場可能有充分的理由看到通脹放緩並駁回央行的鷹派言論。“現在,不僅是製造業,服務業也出現了更多價格壓力緩和的跡象,就業市場也出現了一些裂縫。”

美國最新數據顯示,去年12月份通脹繼續放緩,進一步證明價格壓力已見頂,並可能促使美聯儲再次放慢加息步伐。

市場的焦點將很快轉向利潤,因爲包括摩根大通(JPM.US)在內的美國各大銀行於週五正式開啓財報季。投資者將密切關注企業如何應對利率上升、價格上漲和需求放緩等諸多不利因素。

以David Kostin爲首的高盛策略師在週四晚些時候表示,“標普500指數的收益修正預示硬着陸”,儘管市場預計美國經濟將軟着陸。他們表示,如果沒有出現經濟衰退,今年標普500指數的每股收益增長將持平。

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