市场大幅波动!期权波动率交易该怎么玩?
波动率是一个用来描写一只股票、期货或者指数的价格变化有多快的术语。在期权中也是如此,标的资产的波动率变化和期权价格呈正相关性,也就是说标的资产的波动率越大,期权价格越高,反之亦然。标的资产波动的幅度越大,对买方来说,实现自己预期的可能性越大,所以付出的成本就越高。对卖方则相反,标的资产的波动率高,卖方的风险就越大,所以收取的期权金就越高。
跟期权有关的波动率有三个,分别是历史波动率HV、预测波动率以及隐含波动率IV。历史波动率HV是指标的资产的历史实际波动率,即通过对标的资产在过去一段时期内价格变化的统计得出的波动率。预测波动率是在统计历史波动率的基础上,推断出来用来给期权理论定价的波动率。隐含波动率IV就是期权当下市场给出的波动率,是根据期权的现价倒推出来的,代表了市场当下对标的资产未来的波动率的看法。
但理论和实际是有差距的,随着时间的推进,标的资产的实际波动情况和前一刻市场预计的波动情况会有偏差。这就是交易期权隐含波动率的基础。
换一种说法,当隐含波动率下降时,期权的卖出者一般而言会感到高兴,而期权的购买者则会亏损。波动率交易者的目标是要发现隐含波动率可能出现错误的情况,从而建立一个有利可图的头寸。
为了方便理解,可以把期权隐含波动率交易想像成股票交易。假设没有其他因素影响的情况下,期权价格越高,隐含波动率就越高,投资者预计隐含波动率会降低,那么此时适合卖出期权,就好像是投资者觉得当下股价高了,预计要下跌,所以卖出股票一样。反之,期权价格低,隐含波动率低,如果你预计隐含波动率会上涨,就适合买入期权。不管是买入call还是买入put,在波动率交易上,都是一样的逻辑。
波动率交易策略的基本思路就是构建期权策略对冲掉其他因素对期权价格的影响,只剩下波动率对期权策略的影响,从而实现对股票期权的波动率交易。比如同时买入相同标的资产、到期日、行权价和数量的put和call,就是一个做多波动率的交易。这个策略对股票的价格方向没有预期,但需要上涨或下跌一定的幅度才能获利,这是一个常用的期权波动率交易策略。其他常见的期权波动率交易策略有买入卖出跨式、宽跨式组合、蝶式价差组合等。
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