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華僑銀行降本港今年GDP預測至收縮2.7% 料港銀將進一步加息
華僑銀行經濟師謝棟銘及華僑永亨銀行經濟師姜靜發表報告,指2022年第三季度香港的實際GDP按年收縮4.5%,延續了對上兩季度的跌幅(第一季度:按年收縮3.9%;第二季度:按年收縮1.3%)。由於全球增長勢頭放緩和跨境運輸受阻,外部需求顯著萎縮,而內部需求也因金融狀況趨緊和資產市場波動加劇而承壓。經季節性調整後,本地生產總值按季轉跌2.6%(第二季:按季升1%)。該行將2022全年的經濟預測下調至收縮2.7%。 一如預期,繼美聯儲加息75個基點後,多家主要銀行宣布上調港元最優惠利率(香港主要貸款利率)25個基點,是今年第二次上調。由於境內流動性趨緊,今次的加息步伐較上次12.5個基點快,但加幅仍屬溫和。隨著美聯儲提高目標利率,該行預計未來本地銀行會進一步加息。 該行續稱,在滯後的重新開放和金融環境收緊的情況下,境內需求總體保持疲軟。9月份零售總額按年微升0.2%,差過市場預期。就銷貨數量而言,本月總零售額按年下跌1.5%。香港的私營部門繼續收縮,但收縮速度放慢。香港PMI從9月的48.0升至10月的49.3,連續第二個月低於榮枯線。
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