大摩繼續唱多美股
上週，美股最著名的空頭之一、摩根士丹利策略師Michael Wilson突然轉向唱多美股，認爲在沒有出現盈利下降或官方衰退的情況下，美國股市出現短期反彈的時機已經成熟。雖然這一觀點備受客戶質疑，但在本週一，該策略師加倍看漲美股的短期前景。Wilson週一在一份報告中表示，隨着市場向通脹下降和放緩加息步伐的預期轉變，股市將繼續走高。
Wilson稱，債券收益率的回落應該會爲股市下一輪技術性反彈提供動力，“直到我們對2023年的盈利預期完全失去信心。而我們認爲，這可能需要幾個月的時間”。
另外，這位曾正確預測了今年股市暴跌的策略師還補充道，如果標普500指數突破其200周移動平均線3605點，即比上週五收盤價低約4%，那麼該指數最多將反彈15%。Stifel Nicolaus&Co.策略師也持類似觀點，表示隨着通脹降溫，經濟衰退可能將要到明年第三季度才發生，該行策略師預計，標普500指數將在未來6個月內回升至4300點。
上週五，標普500指數上漲2.4%，至3752.75點，創下自6月以來表現最好的一週，這主要是受益於技術支撐，以及部分企業報告的盈利好於預期。而隨着交易員們厭倦了長時間討論與高通脹和鷹派政策有關的看跌論調，對股市的看漲押注興趣也正在上升。
不過，並非所有的策略師都如此樂觀。高盛在一份報告中表示，目前股價“並未完全反映出許多投資者預期的未來一年美國經濟衰退的風險”，在這樣的背景下，他們傾向於估值合理的防禦性行業。
本週四，美國政府將發佈對第三季度經濟增長的初步估計。根據彭博社調查的經濟學家表示，在第一季度和第二季度都出現萎縮後，美國第三季度GDP可能以2.3%的年化增長率增長。
摩根士丹利的Wilson表示：“儘管部分人可能會認爲，未來6-12個月內經濟衰退是不可避免的，但我們認爲，在衰退確定之前，市場不會對其進行定價。”
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