英特爾跌落神壇?
自納斯達克100指數6月份觸底以來,科技股的反彈幾乎帶動了所有其他成份股的上漲,然而,英特爾(INTC.US)卻沒有出現反彈。
根據數據顯示,這家全球最大的計算機處理器製造商是納指中僅有的自6月16日以來股價出現下跌的六家公司之一。相比之下,由於較低的估值和對通脹正在降溫的樂觀情緒促使交易員紛紛買入遭受重創的科技股,納指同期漲幅達到了21%。
儘管英特爾首席執行官Pat Gelsinger爲恢復公司的芯片製造實業務所做的努力已經持續了18個月,但落後於同行的表現似乎表明投資者對此並不買賬。雖然在最新一季財報中對利潤和營收指引的下調影響了英特爾的股價表現,但像英偉達(NVDA.US)和高通(QCOM.US)等同行類似的疲弱預期並沒有阻止這些股票的反彈。自6月中旬以來,這兩家公司的股價都上漲了17%以上。
Bokeh Capital Partners創始人兼首席投資官Kim Forrest表示:“投資者將英特爾置於難以扭轉局面的境地。人們的眼光比該公司股票所能承諾的要更短。”
在主宰半導體行業數十年後,英特爾失去了在半導體工藝技術方面的領先地位,讓臺積電(TSM.US)等公司得以趕超。
儘管Gelsinger曾承諾,將斥資數百億美元在美國和歐洲新建工廠,並對現有工廠進行重組,以恢復該公司在先進芯片生產領域的領導地位。
然而,該公司疲軟的股價表明,投資者意識到,即使Gelsinger成功了,扭轉局面也需要很長時間。由於英特爾的產品建立在舊的製造技術基礎上,市場份額不斷下降,中期可能會有更多令人失望的業績報告出爐。在解決這些問題之前,外界認爲,英特爾重回增長將難以實現。
在英特爾早前公佈了令人失望的第二季度財報後,華爾街分析師也紛紛下調了對英特爾的利潤預測。根據彭博社彙編數據顯示,在過去一個月,分析師對該公司2023年每股收益的預測下降了28%。相比之下,對標普500指數中與半導體相關的公司的預測則下降了約13%,這反映出了在庫存增加和經濟增長放緩的情況下,市場對多種芯片的需求正不斷惡化。
較低的利潤前景也使英特爾相對於預期收益的估值更高。根據數據顯示,以未來12個月的利潤衡量,英特爾近15倍的估值接近過去十年來的最高水平。
英特爾的估值高企,且扭轉局面持續時間的不確定性,使得Ironhold Capital Management創始人兼首席投資官Siddharth Singhai暫時持觀望態度。“如果英特爾能夠彌補技術上的不足,他們的地位將是令人難以置信的,”他表示。
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