石英股份(603688):22H1業績超預期 緊供給格局不變高彈性可期
事件描述2022H1 公司半年報:實現收入6.97 億元,同增58%,歸屬淨利潤2.89 億元,同增156%;估算Q2 業績為2.01 億,同增187%。事件評論光伏業務量價齊升是核心彈性。22H1 光伏業務收入3.54 億元,同增213%;主要得益下游景氣加速疊加石英砂供給緊缺,22H1 公司量價齊升。22H1 半導體產品收入1.12 億元,同增64%,主要是隨着公司在設備廠商認證通過後供貨份額不斷提升(公司已通過日本東京電子、美國LAM 認證)。此外,我們預計傳統業務電光源產品收入也有一定改善契機,一方面是紅外加熱、紫外固化、紫外線消毒、高品質分析等高端光源市場持續增長,同時,疫情之下殺菌、消毒等設施設備市場如天然石英管和合成熔融石英管需求也迎來快速增長。產能如期推進,新產能逐步貢獻供給彈性。公司二期2 萬噸高純石英砂產能已投產,目前已正常運行,22Q3 開始將釋放一定供給彈性。同時三期6 萬噸已啟動且在加速建設中,預計自2023H2 開始貢獻邊際彈性。2022H2 價格彈性可期。22H2 隨着硅料供給瓶頸緩解,下游開工率或迎提升,對坩堝用砂需求環比持續增加,或將導致22Q3-Q4 供需持續趨緊,預計價格有望提前迎來向上窗口。中期來看,N 型高效單晶電池片持續滲透下,對石英砂的用量有望迎來更大增長。此外,市場所擔心或有新進入者出現,我們強調一定要重視公司在礦資源端強管控疊加提純技術的加持力,新進入者短時間內難以突破。高壁壘&高集中度之下,石英砂是產業鏈核心卡脖子環節,因此高彈性與持續性兼具。1、定價力強化:過往國產砂主要是跟隨海外砂被動定價,未來伴隨國產砂份額提升(當前已成為全球NO.1)和內外層結構升級,公司有望享受更強主動定價力。2、漲價阻力弱:一方面,石英砂佔比下游成本很低,客户對價格敏感性較為鈍化;同時,高壁壘下供給端幾無規模衝擊因素,價格天花板較高。3、將石英砂和此前硅料、光伏玻璃等對標並不科學,石英砂獨有的供給高門檻、緊供給的局面長期存在,因此價格易漲難跌,遠期有韌性。4、估值有支撐:相比光伏產業鏈其他材料,石英砂壁壘更多在於資源供應而非加工製造及渠道佈局,因此或可享受更高估值溢價。半導體國產化大背景下,公司有望領銜砂的大變革。在半導體國產化大背景下,公司有望憑藉技術實力實現此領域0-1 突破,複製光伏砂國產替代之路,解決國內半導體用砂被海外卡脖子現狀。屆時,產業鏈佈局日趨完善有望為公司帶來新的利潤增長點和估值空間。考慮到下游景氣加速背景下,公司產能放量疊加產品漲價契機,我們上調公司盈利預期。預計2022-2023 年業績10、21 億元,對應PE 為51、25 倍,維持買入評級。風險提示1、石英砂同行出現規模擴產;2、下游裝機增速低預期。
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