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古井貢酒(000596):業績超預期 趨勢繼續向好
格隆匯 07-31 00:00
2022年07月29 日晚間, 公司發佈2022 年半年報預吿:2022H1 營收90.02 億元( 同增28.5% ) , 歸母淨利潤19.19億元(同增39.2%)。投資要點業績超預期,蓄水池明顯預計2022Q2營收37.28億元(+29.6%),歸母淨利潤8.2億元(+45.4%),扣非7.99億元(+48.8%),業績超預期。2022H1淨利率為21.3%(同增1pct),其中2022Q2為22%(同增1.8pct),系公司產品結構持續優化。我們預計上半年古8及以上產品增速30%以上,古16/20增速快於古8。2022H1末合同負債34.28億元(環減12.64億元),蓄水池仍明顯。全國化+次高端雙驅動,進一步完善激勵機制公司已於去年收購省內老明光酒業,意圖強化省內龍頭地位同時繼續收割省內百元以下價格帶產品的市場份額。當前千元價位帶在擴容上升,公司堅定戰略主推次高端古20,同時積極儲備高端產品如古香型的年三十。十四五公司堅持“全國化+次高端”戰略不變,加快“全國化、次高端”的推進速度,打造規模省區、規模市場、規模客户、規模單品、規模網點。十四五公司省內外營收比重目標是五五開。目前省外主要是大商模式,環安徽市場表現良好,江蘇、河北地區勢頭良好,河南市場表現突出。近年來公司提出在河南市場再造一個新安徽市場,提升產品結構。盈利預測預計2022-2024年EPS分別為5.58/7.04/8.78元,當前股價對應PE分別為38/30/24倍,維持“推薦”投資評級。風險提示宏觀經濟下行風險、疫情拖累消費、古8及以上增長不及預期、黃鶴樓增長不及預期、省外擴張不及預期等
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