川恆股份(002895):Q2單季度業績新高 繼續看好公司磷氟鋰一體化佈局下中長期成長性
事件:公司發佈2022 年半年報,2022 年上半年實現營業收入15.87 億元,同比增加57.77%,實現歸母淨利潤3.71 億元,同比增加254.08%。Q2 單季度實現營業收入9.78 億元,同比增加58.18%,環比增加60.73%,歸母淨利潤2.67 億元,同比增加277.75%,環比增加156.01%。Q2 單季度業績創歷史新高。磷礦石及磷化工產品價格大幅上漲帶動公司業績大漲:1)磷礦石及磷化工價格大幅上漲是公司二季度業績同環比上升的主要原因,以30%品位磷礦為例,2022 年Q2 均價為829 元/噸,同比上漲93%,環比Q1 上漲30%。磷化工產品端公司核心產品磷酸二氫鈣作為水產飼料,出口不受法檢限制,較好的供需格局及公司較強定價權(川恆40%以上市佔率)下實現超額漲價,Q1 公司磷酸二氫鈣報價均價為3881 元/噸,Q2 報價均價為5800 元/噸,產品價格及價差擴張明顯。同時公司新增了向新能源企業銷售磷酸產品,2022 年上半年實現營業收入1.69 億元,也帶動公司業績同比上漲。2)公司90%權益子公司福麟礦業擁有磷礦產能300 萬噸,上半年實現營業收入3.95億元,實現淨利潤1.79 億元。母公司上半年實現營業收入13.51 億元,實現淨利潤3.68 億元,扣除成本法核算的長期股權投資收益(來自福麟礦業分紅)1.44 億元淨利潤為2.24 億元,再考慮四川基地磷酸二氫鈣及磷酸產品貢獻(子公司川恆生態,具體淨利潤半年報未具體披露),我們測算上半年公司磷礦石+化工端合計利潤應該在4 個億以上,與實際歸母淨利潤差異主要體現在庫存的增加,2022 年上半年公司庫存5.05 億元,環比一季度大幅增加1.51 億元。3)上半年公司毛利率為41.53%,淨利潤24.10%,同比去年大幅提升主要來自磷礦資產的注入以及磷化工產品的價差擴大。4)上半年公司費用率11.27%,其中管理費用增加0.33 億元,主要包含新增的股權激勵費用0.2 億元,研發費用增加0.15 億元,同比增加109%,主要來自公司轉型新增研發項目增加、職工薪酬及材料費用增加所致。盈利預測與投資評級:我們預計公司2022~2024 年歸母淨利潤分別為9.0、14.1 及18.3 億元,分別對應16.1、10.2、7.9 倍PE,堅定看好公司磷氟鋰新能源材料方向轉型,成長空間大,維持“買入”投資評級,繼續強烈看好。風險提示:下游需求不及預期、項目建設進度不及預期、競爭加劇導致產品價格下跌。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.