寶立食品(603170)首次覆蓋報吿:復調速食齊頭並進 多點花開可期
定製復調賽道龍頭,探索速食領域新突破。公司成立於2001 年,產品包括複合調味料、輕烹解決方案和飲品甜點配料,主要以直銷模式為餐飲及食品工業企業提供定製化的風味及產品解決方案。在業務規模壯大過程中,公司已與百勝中國、麥當勞、德克士、聖農食品等國內外知名企業建立了長期穩定的合作關係,為百勝T1 供應商。2021 年3 月,寶立收購熱門意麪品牌“空刻”運營主體——廚房阿芬75%的股權,向C 端市場進軍, 改變了過去靠B端市場“單腿”走路的格局,促進收入利潤高速增長。2021 年,公司共實現營收15.8 億元,同比增長74.4%;實現歸母淨利潤1.85 億元,同比+38.2%。齊頭並進,復調+速食均處高速成長賽道。1)B 端:定製調味品空間廣闊。由於餐飲客户價格敏感度低,更換復調供應商轉換成本較高影響,定製復調在B 端發展存在一定先發優勢。隨着餐飲連鎖化率提升、外賣市場發展,定製復調行業發展空間廣闊,預計2030 年市場空間有望達2760 億元,未來十年CAGR 約10%; 2)C 端:速食意麪開創速食市場新機遇。“空刻意麪”的推出成功掀起速食意麪熱潮,讓消費者在家只需花費約15min 便可得到一份不輸餐廳品質的意麪,且產品價格優惠(20-30 元)。因此,憑藉健康方便、性價比高等優點,速食意麪快速放量。預計速食意麪行業規模約45 億,其中空刻龍頭優勢顯著,市佔率約10%。公司亮點:B 端復調穩定增長,C 端速食貢獻彈性。1)從渠道來看:公司與百勝等B 端大客户的合作穩定,龍頭優勢顯著,未來增量源於存量大客户自身增長+產品滲透率提升+增量客户挖掘 ;公司在C 端已逐步站穩腳跟,空刻意麪產品正處於享受品牌優勢紅利及行業快速擴充的高速增長期。2)從產品及管理來看:公司多年發展積累的產品創新研發能力以及領先的管理能力將助力公司進一步獲取市場份額,提升行業話語權。3)從產能來看:現階段公司擁有上海松江、金山、山東和浙江嘉興四大生產基地,產能合計 9.9 萬噸。公司此次募資建設嘉興二期,建成後預計新增年產能 4.35 萬噸,有望緩解部分產品旺季產能不足的現狀,發揮規模效應。投資建議:我們預計2022-2024 年公司分別實現營業收入19.6/24.1/29.3億元,分別同比24.4%/22.8%/21.6%,預計2022-2024 年公司歸母淨利潤2.0/2.6/3.4 億元,同比增速分別為6.6%/33.4%/29.2%。參考可比公司分部估值法,我們預計公司2023 年對應合理市值區間為103-116 億元,對應合理估值39-44X,首次覆蓋給予“買入”評級。風險提示:原材料價格波動風險,
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