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美聯儲轉鴿將拯救美股?以史爲鑑:別抱太大期望

今年以來,美聯儲激進加息將美股推入熊市,眼下,伴隨着美國經濟衰退風險升溫,不少人指望美聯儲政策轉向,屆時美股將獲得“救贖”。然而,市場研究公司DataTrek Research警告稱,根據歷史經驗,美聯儲由鷹轉鴿,並不一定會成爲美股反彈的催化劑。

該公司在週三的一份報告中稱,儘管很多投資者希望看到美聯儲暫停其激進的加息舉措(包括1994年以來首次加息75個基點),但美聯儲此前的鴿派轉向並不總能轉化爲股價上漲。

DataTrek聯合創始人Nicholas Colas指出,必須謹慎看待美聯儲轉變貨幣政策標誌着股市轉折的看法。2001年的狀況就並非如此,當時隨着衰退日趨嚴重,企業盈利的不確定性不斷上升。

在美聯儲1999年和2000年大舉加息之後,互聯網泡沫破裂,美聯儲從2001年1月開始立場驟變,開始大幅降息。甚至在2001年1月3日,美聯儲還曾進行了一次計劃外的“緊急”降息,幅度爲50個基點,當月晚些時候又降息50個基點。

這兩次降息之後,2001年3月、4月、5月、9月和10月,美聯儲又進行了5次幅度50個基點的降息。

Colas觀察到,最終,從2000年5月到2002年11月,聯邦基金利率從6.5%下降到1.25%,而美股卻仍繼續下跌。他指出,美聯儲連續降息不足以支撐美股估值。

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如今,相似的局面可能會出現,華爾街對2022年企業盈利增長10%的預期看起來過於樂觀,而且經濟衰退擔憂不斷加劇。此外,過去一年股市的大部分下跌都是由高估值科技股推動的,類似於互聯網泡沫時期的情況。

Colas指出,一系列事件釀成了2000-2002年的熊市,2022年類似問題加速重現,而且短期內美聯儲不大可能提供支持。他呼籲投資者持有醫療保健等防禦類股,等待市場更加明朗。

美聯儲轉鴿預期升溫

目前,越來越多交易員押注美國經濟衰退的前景將使美聯儲暫停大幅加息的腳步。

債券市場週三轉向預測美聯儲將在2023年某個時候降息50個基點,利率料在年初見頂。與明年美聯儲會期掛鉤的利率互換合約顯示,交易員預計到明年12月利率將接近3.11%,比預估在3月份達到的3.62%頂部下降了逾50基點。

高盛也加入了近期押注美聯儲將轉向鴿派政策的熱潮。該行策略師稱,儘管過去幾周市場對美聯儲政策利率的隱含預期已降至2023 年初“下行空間有限”的水平,但市場對2024年聯邦基金利率的定價可能低估了衰退的風險。

美聯儲利率掉期互換顯示,政策利率將在2023年3月達到3.60%左右的峯值,比當前的聯邦基金利率水平高出約200個基點。相比之下,幾周前這一預期約爲4%。

“大空頭原型”Michael Burry日前也表示,零售業此前的供給過剩形成了“牛鞭效應”,而隨着需求放緩,“牛鞭效應”迎來終結,並將在今年晚些時候引發通縮,促使美聯儲逆轉緊縮之路,甚至重啓寬鬆。

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