電商股市值腰斬 抄底時機到了嗎？
在經歷了2022年上半年的暴跌之後，美股電子商務股是否已經觸底?
受通脹和供應鏈瓶頸影響，Chewy(CHWY.US)、Wayfair(W.US)、Stitch Fix(SFIX.US)、Etsy Inc(ETSY.US)、ThredUp(TDUP.US)、Farfetch(FTCH.US)等高估值的互聯網零售股自年初以來都下跌了50%以上。
如此大幅度的下跌可能會促使逢低買入玩家搶購股票。然而，隨着對美國經濟衰退的擔憂加劇，摩根士丹利分析師Lauren Schenk 警告稱，大多數電商股可能還沒有觸底。
抄底可能爲時過早
不確定性是當下的熱門詞彙，對電子商務而言，這當然也不例外。正因爲如此，摩根士丹利分析師表示，現在斷言這個陷入困境的行業觸底還爲時過早。
隨着飆升的汽油價格推動通脹不斷上漲，美國消費者需求可能會從峯值放緩，在線購買支出將受到打擊。此外，塔吉特(TGT.US)等實體零售商龐大的庫存也可能會引發價格競爭，同時利潤率面臨更大的壓力。
"多數股票可能尚未觸底，"摩根士丹利分析師Lauren Schenk近期表示。該分析師表示，其最擔心的是那些服裝和家居業務較多的企業，尤其是那些擁有庫存的公司，因爲庫存水平不斷上升，渠道進口不斷增加，加上需求放緩。
Schenk補充稱，雖然對下半年的預期已經很低，但對許多熱門電商股來說，估值可能仍然過高。典型例子包括Etsy 、Wayfair 、Stitch Fix 和Revolve Group(RVLV.US)。Schenk推測，在當前的市場環境下，許多此類股票缺乏盈利能力可能會帶來普遍的不利影響。
Schenk表示，Etsy 、Stitch Fix 和Wayfair尤其讓她擔心。
Schenk總結道:“儘管從估值的角度來看，部分電商股似乎降低了風險，但我們認爲，現在買入大多數股票仍爲時過早。”
這些個股仍值得關注
Schenk認爲，這類電商股較2019年水平下跌的兩個主要原因是：估值過高或競爭地位較弱。前者被認爲是近期更常見的拋售催化劑。
然而，Schenk和其同事Brian Nowak的綜合分析指出，近期投資者不分青紅皁白地拋售造成了“錯位”，這提供了重大的機會。他們認爲，Farfetch、Chewy、Match group(MTCH.US)和Poshmark(POSH.US)具有吸引力。
分析師表示：“我們看好Farfetch，因爲其庫存風險較低，2023年GMS(總成交銷售額)增速加快，收入敞口較高，在經濟低迷時期往往更具彈性。考慮到近期的表現與基本面、消費品敞口、以及長期增長潛力等，我們長期看好Chewy。”
Schenk表示，鑑於不利的宏觀經濟背景，Poshmark評級爲“中性”，但它仍然比大多數電商股更有吸引力。此外，分析師認爲，Match是首選中型股，並予Rent the Runway(RENT.US)“買入”評級。
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