終結二十多年最長周連跌,美股拋售接近尾聲?
隨着美股在5月接近尾聲時反彈,股市拋售潮是否已經結束?
美股今年開局不利,標普500指數今年以來累計下跌13%,爲1970年以來最大跌幅,原因是美聯儲實施激進的貨幣緊縮政策以對抗通脹,引發美國經濟衰退擔憂。不斷上升的利率削弱了科技股和成長型股票的吸引力,納斯達克100指數暴跌22%,創下歷史最大跌幅。

此次拋售中斷了美股牛市行情。不過,美聯儲官員不那麼強硬的言論、美國消費者支出保持彈性以及好於預期的企業財報給投資者帶來了希望。這推動標普500指數上週反彈6.6%,結束了2001年以來持續時間最長的單週下跌。
納斯達克100指數遭遇全球金融危機以來最嚴重的熊市。儘管科技股的歷史性暴跌有所緩和,但納斯達克100指數仍較去年11月的高點下跌23%。

納斯達克100指數遭遇全球金融危機以來最嚴重的熊市
投資者也遭受了2008年以來最嚴重的打擊。Strategas Securities的數據顯示,2022年,標普500指數在89%的交易日中的每日波動幅度至少爲1%。

能源股則逆勢上漲,因俄烏衝突刺激油價飆升。這使得能源股成爲美股各大板塊中最大的贏家,年內漲幅達58%。

那麼,美股的“至暗時刻”已經過去了嗎?分析師表示,在股市觸及最終低點之前,可能會繼續波動。但較低的估值已經開始吸引買家迴歸。
根據LPL Financial的數據,從歷史上看,在此前五次開局最差的年份裏,標普500指數都會在當年剩餘時間裏反彈,在隨後的七個月平均上漲19.1%。不過,需要注意的是,自上世紀70年代以來,股市交易和投資發生了巨大變化,更不用說上世紀30年代了。

標普500指數回報率:年初至第100個交易日 VS 年內剩餘時間
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