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美國通脹拐點確立,美股調整可能接近尾聲

來源:熊園觀察

事件:美國公佈4月CPI數據,同比8.3%,前值8.5%。

核心結論:美國4月CPI略高於預期但開始回落,通脹拐點正式確立,符合我們預判;繼續提示,美股調整可能已接近尾聲,後續納指有望重新跑贏標普500,對A股特別是以創業板爲代表的成長股影響偏積極;需注意,要高度警惕俄烏衝突、中美博弈等地緣衝突的擾動。

1、美國4月CPI表現及後續展望:美國4月CPI同比8.3%,預期8.1%,前值8.5%;核心CPI同比6.2%,預期6.0%,前值6.5%。雖然4月CPI略高於預期,但已確定性出現拐點。

根據我們最新測算,美國5月CPI同比可能降至略低於8%,6月可能降至7.5%左右,3季度下降速度將有所放緩,4季度下降速度將明顯加快,預計年底將降至4.6%左右,明年美國通脹有望回到美聯儲2%的目標水平附近。

2、資產價格和加息預期變化:CPI數據公佈後,主要資產價格大幅波動。

收盤價與數據公佈前相比,標普500指數期貨下跌2.5%,10Y美債收益率和黃金價格基本持平,美元指數上漲0.4%。美聯儲加息預期變化不大,且近期已趨於平穩。

目前市場預期6月和7月將分別加息50bp,單次加息75bp的概率依然很低。

3、美股展望及對A股影響:結合歷史規律和當前情況來看,本輪美股調整可能已接近尾聲,並且納指有望重新跑贏標普500。

由於近年來A股與美股相關性明顯加強,且風格切換高度同步,這意味着對A股特別是以創業板爲代表的成長股影響偏積極,但需警惕俄烏衝突、中美博弈等因素的擾動。

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