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中金:元宇宙的通行證——NFT,監管將逐步規範NFT行業健康發展

中金公司認爲,NFT是在區塊鏈技術支持下的加密數字憑證,構成元宇宙經濟體系重要底層設施。相較海外來看,國內NFT市場發展階段較爲初級,互聯網平臺在市場熱度漸起後相繼入局,2021年成爲國內NFT市場元年。另一方面,由於國內政策環境相對嚴格,目前仍以PGC數字藏品的一級交易爲核心,商業營銷屬性較強,中金認爲目前國內市場開放性相對不足,存在較大可拓展空間。展望未來,監管將逐步規範行業健康發展,在合法合規的基礎上,行業有望實現交易流動性提升及內容來源多樣化,落地現實確權、附加權益、互動應用等多種應用場景。

NFT——元宇宙中的通行證。NFT(Non-Fungible Token)是在區塊鏈技術支持下的加密數字憑證,用以記錄藝術品或收藏品等虛擬數字資產的所有權,具有獨一無二、不可替代、不可分割、可編程性、可追溯性、永久保存等特點。基於以上屬性,NFT能夠實現數字資產版權確權、賦能數字資產交易流轉,併爲用戶提供收藏性、投資性與功能性等多種消費價值,構成元宇宙經濟體系重要底層設施。

探海外:NFT市場如何站上風口?海外NFT市場於2017年正式起步,在明星產品、交易平臺和底層技術三大方向的推動下,2021年迎來發展熱潮,熱門項目供不應求,頭部產品及二次交易驅動市場規模迅速擴張。海外NFT交易模式可分爲類Ebay和類Gallery兩種主流模式,呈現以OpenSea領銜的一超多強格局。我們對OpenSea進行案例分析,以期爲國內NFT交易平臺發展提供參考:OpenSea以建立開放式的交易平臺爲目標,對接NFT產品買賣雙方,通過收取2.5%交易傭金實現收入。我們認爲,較低的用戶使用門檻、良好的購買體驗及持續的社區建設構築OpenSea核心競爭力,先發優勢和規模效應助其應對競爭對手挑戰,穩固領導地位。

觀國內:風潮漸起,NFT市場將何去何從?相較海外來看,國內NFT市場發展階段較爲初級,互聯網平臺在市場熱度漸起後相繼入局,2021年成爲國內NFT市場元年。另一方面,由於國內政策環境相對嚴格,目前仍以PGC數字藏品的一級交易爲核心,商業營銷屬性較強,我們認爲目前國內市場開放性相對不足,存在較大可拓展空間。展望未來,我們認爲監管將逐步規範行業健康發展,在合法合規的基礎上,行業有望實現交易流動性提升及內容來源多樣化,落地現實確權、附加權益、互動應用等多種應用場景。我們認爲,用戶將根據持有的NFT進入特定社羣,以新的虛擬身份參與社區交流、遊戲娛樂、空間建設等互動,完成新型互聯網身份的構建,而這是構築“元宇宙”底層建設的必經之路。

風險

行業政策風險,NFT技術進步不及預期,NFT交易變現能力不及預期,NFT平臺安全性不及預期,法律認證問題。

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