《大行報告》大和中港首選股新增海爾智家(06690.HK)、藥明康德(603259.SH)及歌爾聲學(002241.SZ)
大和發表研究報告指出,由於Omicron變種病毒具有高度傳染性,中國每日確診病例不太可能重回去年每日只有低單位數的水平,未來甚至會出現更為頻繁的「零星爆發」。該行相信控制疫情仍是政府的首要任務,而恢復經濟活動是採取刺激措施的先決條件,惟在防疫政策及保持5.5%經濟增長目標之間的平衡面臨更嚴峻的困難,料短期內將繼續打壓市場情緒。
該行指出,由於地方政府對貨車司機及封鎖高速公路等實施嚴格的檢疫措施,而上海「封城」引發長三角地區的供應鏈動盪。上海及江蘇為汽車、電子及機械製造等工廠重地,相信對相關行業供應鏈的不利因素將持續至5月中。另外,由於復工復產進展緩慢,供應鏈中斷情況或在短期內持續。
大和認為,雖然不太可能在短期內看到強勁的市場反彈,但對中國市場尤其是香港市場無需過於悲觀,因為市場估值已顯示出長期投資價值,正如該行早前預測,2022年中期將出現周期性上升趨勢,加上政府逆周期措施,預期可能為第二季逐步觸底鋪平道路。該行將A股的醫療保健板塊由「減持」上調至「中性」,中港首選股中新增海爾智家H股(06690.HK)、藥明康德(603259.SH)及歌爾聲學(002241.SZ),看好他們的盈利能力更具韌性,當中給予海爾智家「買入」評級。
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