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瑞銀首席美國經濟學家預計每次FOMC會議均會加息
阿思達克 03-17 14:17
駐美瑞銀首席美國經濟學家Jonathan Pingle表示,在FOMC會議開始前,彭博和其他調查顯示,受訪者的預期中值為2022年加息約4次。FOMC釋放出加息更多次的信號,也符合該行預期。在3月經濟預測總結的預期中值是2022年將加息7次,每次25個基點,與該行預期相符,而12月的預期中值僅為3次。到2024年末,聯邦基金利率的中值假設為2.8%,接近3.0%。 Jonathan Pingle認為,FOMC與會者可能在預測中不再考慮財政刺激,並計入更高價格和利率;同時通脹預測也上調,2022年整體PCE預測從12月的2.6%升至3月的4.3%,核心PCE預測中值從2.7%升至4.1%;而到2024年,委員會預計核心通脹中值將回落至2.3%。(ca/u) ~
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