俄羅斯石油若被禁運，對本已混亂的市場可能意味着什麼
布倫特原油價格在亞洲市場開盤飆升近18%，逼近每桶140美元，因週末有報導稱美國和歐洲盟友在討論對俄羅斯原油出口的可能禁令。
這是自俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭以來油價暴漲的最新進展，這一地緣政治事件已導致能源市場陷入混亂，並令全球面臨一個重大的通膨衝擊。以下是分析師對禁運俄羅斯石油可能帶來的影響的看法。
來源：彭博
澳新銀行
澳新銀行高級大宗商品策略師Daniel Hynes在採訪中表示，新制裁措施可能影響每日約500萬桶的原油供應，這包括輸油管道和海運在內。「我們可能已在看到那些制裁可能產生的影響，因此市場的這種反應可被視爲本能反應，」他說。Hynes說，鑑於整個能源領域都在發生這種情況，歐洲沒有太多選擇，短期內可能會爲石油、天然氣和其他燃料支付更多成本。
JTD Energy Services
「由於地緣政治緊張局勢、不確定性和焦慮情緒都在加劇，要準確判斷此輪漲勢的頂部在哪非常困難，」JTD Energy Services創始人John Driscoll在採訪中表示。「在2008-2009年的金融危機期間，在油價於2008年7月達到每桶150美元左右時需求受到了破壞，」他說。「不過，當前這波漲勢是由供應驅動的，在市場安定下來之前油價可能會超過這個水平。」
Vanda Insights
新加坡Vanda Insights的創始人之一Vandana Hari表示，若禁止進口俄羅斯原油，可能會推動能源市場陷入我們一生所見最爲嚴重的混亂局面。「市場走勢中並沒有完全反應出潛在影響，因爲這場戰爭中市場的所有押注都消失了，」她說。Hari表示，很難看到歐盟同意禁止進口俄羅斯石油，即便美國在推進這麼做，因爲如果莫斯科進行報復，歐洲將會「熄火」。
花旗集團
Ed Morse等花旗分析師在大宗商品季度展望中表示，俄羅斯原油和汽油的出口已在被迴避。花旗的基本預期情境是，俄羅斯產的原油每日會減少500,000桶，將會有6000萬桶的儲備原油釋放。該行的看漲預期情境是，到2022年底，俄羅斯原油產量減少200萬桶/天，美國和其他國家將投放大約1.2億桶儲備原油。在花旗最爲看漲的預期情境下，莫斯科將只會向中國出口原油，OPEC+不會作出響應。俄羅斯-烏克蘭危機也意味着多重中斷風險的可能性很高，包括管道和港口受損、油輪費率上升、出口摩擦和網絡攻擊等。
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