《大行報告》大和下調美團(03690.HK)目標價至300元 評級「買入」
大和發表研究報告指,認爲發改委等部門日前發出的新通知並非特別針對外賣行業,對美團(03690.HK)實收率影響有限。雖然預計美團第四季業績表現穩健,但由於宏觀環境疲軟,大和認爲公司主要業務收入或存在下行風險。
該行表示,疫情再現對經濟復甦的可見性蒙上陰影,指出如果下半年市場復甦仍然處於不溫不火的狀態,預期美團的股價可能會受壓。
大和指,在消費者需求疲軟的情況下,對用戶的補貼支出可能會減少,估計若送餐率下降1%,將對送餐營業利潤產生約7%的負面影響。去年第三季美團對客戶發放的優惠佔外賣交易總額(GTV)約3%,部分發展成熟城市僅補貼約1.5%,預期實收率有充足上升空間。
由於宏觀環境疲軟以及疫情對食品配送需求的影響,該行預計去年第四季食品配送收入僅按年增長 19%,今年首季增長料進一步放緩至14%,並於第二季回升至17%。盈利方面,大和認爲美團今年上半年新業務虧損可能低於預期,將全年收入預測下調5%,重申「買入」評級,目標價由310元下降至300元。
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