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美聯儲會議紀要:若通脹持續高企,應準備提前加息

北京時間週四凌晨三點,美聯儲公佈了11月FOMC會議的紀要,進一步揭示了貨幣政策制定者宣佈啓動Taper背後的考量。紀要公佈後,有關“提前加息”的展望引發股市小幅走弱,但由於此前市場已經充分消化加息預期,後續股指也恢復至發佈紀要前水平。

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(來源:美聯儲)

在11月的FOMC決議中,美聯儲宣佈分別在11月和12月各減少150億美元的債券購買規模,並預期後續將維持類似的縮減速度,直到明年年中完全結束購債。

而在最新公佈的會議紀要中,美聯儲官員們對於通脹高企的擔憂和調整政策節奏的焦慮也躍然紙上。紀要顯示,美聯儲官員們在11月會議上雖然判斷通脹繼續走高主要反映一些臨時性因素,但也表示通脹壓力本身可能會需要(比美聯儲預期)更長的時間來消退。

與會者也坦承,雖然目前仍預期隨着供需關係再平衡,2022年能夠看到通脹顯著下降,但他們自己也認爲這一判斷的不確定性正在提升,最終可能會證明通脹比預期來得更頑固。

直擊市場痛點的是,相較於以往含糊不清的表態,今天的會議紀要明確點出了“提前加息日程”的說法。

紀要顯示,一些與會者建議加快縮減購債的速度,使得FOMC能處於一個更好的位置,以應對調整聯邦基金利率的需求,特別是在通脹壓力下。多名與會者指出,如果通脹持續高於委員會的政策目標,FOMC應當準備好調整Taper的速度,同時以早於預期的速度調整聯邦基金利率的目標區間(加息)。

雖然也有與會者強調要保持耐心,仔細審視供應鏈問題的進展,但這一段的結論落在“與會者表示FOMC在應對威脅長期價格穩定和就業目標的通脹壓力時,應該毫不猶豫地採取適當的舉措”。

在11月FOMC會議後,最新出爐的勞工部十月CPI(6.2%)和商務部PCE(5%)指數均進一步上衝至三十年來新高,週四的初請失業金人數(19.9萬)驟降至1969年以來的最低水平。這一系列數據都指向美聯儲會採取更積極動作的預期。

今年最後一次FOMC會議將會在12月14-15日舉行,屆時將公佈新一期經濟預測和點陣圖。有一半的FOMC委員在九月時預期2022年內將進行加息,這一羣體有望在下個月進一步擴大。互換合約價格顯示,目前市場預期美聯儲將在2022年加息三次(各25個基點)。

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