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海通國際:料未來通關進一步支持香港樓價 看淡九龍倉置業(1997.HK)
格隆匯 11-19 16:39

海通國際發研報稱,指相信本港政府正爭取在明年2月與內地大致復關。明年訪港旅客料按年大升近330倍,但仍顯着低於2018年高位。報吿稱,內地入境旅客/人士對香港樓價、樓市成交及零售銷售均有重要角色。自2010年起,透過單程證入境人士每年多達4.2萬人,該數字較香港每年淨人口增長均值約3.9萬人還要高。59%內地入境人士年齡介乎25至59歲,相信他們大都是經濟上活躍,對樓價帶來進一步支持。

至於零售銷售方面,報吿稱,2018年內地入境旅客達5,100萬人次創新高,估當年總入境旅客達78%。此外,2019年內地過夜旅客人均消費達5990港元,僅略低於澳洲及美國旅客,屬全球受訪旅客羣中第三高。對香港零售而言,內地旅客消費較其他旅客更加重要。

報吿稱,九龍倉置業(1997.HK)屬通關主要受惠者,但相信有關利好已反映於股價,評級“跑輸大市”,目標價34港元。該行偏好發展商多於收租股,如希慎(0014.HK)及領展(0823.HK)。以市賬率計,九龍倉置業估值是同業之間最高。地產股中,海通國際喜好新地(0016.HK)、恆地(0012.HK)及新世界(0017.HK)。收租股中該行偏好主攻大眾化市場的領展及置富產業信託(0778.HK)。

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