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富瑞:料國泰(0293.HK)年底貨運量將呈季節性增長 維持“買入”評級
格隆匯 11-18 13:08

富瑞發研報指,貨運旺季似乎將會持續至年底,預期國泰航空(0293.HK)將保持接近經營現金收支平衡,以減少下半年虧損。該行指,基於三宗國泰貨運機組人員確診新冠肺炎的案例,認為機組人員被暫停豁免檢疫的可能性是一個主要風險。另外,由於乘客流量仍然疲軟,集團仍然依賴貨運業務。該行維持集團“買入”評級,予目標價8.4港元。

該行表示,如港府暫停對機組人員豁免檢疫的措施,將會對國泰構成更高成本,集團預計,更嚴厲的隔離措施將令每月額外的現金消耗增加3億至4億港元。國泰預期,今年下半年的業績將較上半年的淨虧損79億港元有所改善,但全年虧損仍然重大。

該行基於嚴格的旅行和檢疫限制,預料集團的客運量將保持疲軟,但這或會被強勁的貨運量所抵銷,因為年底貨運量將呈季節性強勁增長。而下半年至今的香港至美國和香港至歐洲的航空貨運收益率目前較上半年高26%和24%,估計集團的下半年航空貨運收益率僅較上半年高出2%。

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