摩通:煤短缺最壞情況已過,降中國神華、兗州煤業H股評級
摩通發表研究報吿,煤短缺最壞情況已過,下調中國神華(1088.HK)評級,由“增持”降至“減持”,目標價由23港元降至15港元;兗州煤業(1171.HK)評級由“中性”降至“減持”,目標價削由12港元降至10港元。
該行指,政府對國內煤炭產出取態有重要改變,以及第4季需求正常化,將改變現時煤炭短缺情況。預計明年,煤價會回調至每公噸900元人幣以下,併為煤炭股帶來降級影響。
報吿稱,自發改委宣佈將煤炭價格控制上限在每噸1800元人民幣後,中國動力煤期貨價格於3天內跌30%。加上氣温由酷熱夏天回調,煤炭需求大幅下降,屬季節性需求回落。短期內,內地火力發電廠的煤炭庫存,會因此快速正常化。另外相關新產出會於11月投入市場,該行預計,煤炭供應按年升幅會增至約5%,天氣情況大致正常化。
摩通指出,縱使中國神華、兗州煤業第3季均有強勁表現,但正面因素已反映在股價之中,市場短期會聚焦煤炭市場波動情況,因此,該行估計相關情況會拖累板塊交易情緒,下調兩公司目標價。
Follow us
Find us on
Facebook,
Twitter ,
Instagram, and
YouTube or frequent updates on all things investing.Have a financial topic you would like to discuss? Head over to the
uSMART Community to share your thoughts and insights about the market! Click the picture below to download and explore uSMART app!

Disclaimers
uSmart Securities Limited (“uSmart”) is based on its internal research and public third party information in preparation of this article. Although uSmart uses its best endeavours to ensure the content of this article is accurate, uSmart does not guarantee the accuracy, timeliness or completeness of the information of this article and is not responsible for any views/opinions/comments in this article. Opinions, forecasts and estimations reflect uSmart’s assessment as of the date of this article and are subject to change. uSmart has no obligation to notify you or anyone of any such changes. You must make independent analysis and judgment on any matters involved in this article. uSmart and any directors, officers, employees or agents of uSmart will not be liable for any loss or damage suffered by any person in reliance on any representation or omission in the content of this article. The content of the article is for reference only and does not constitute any offer, solicitation, recommendation, opinion or guarantee of any securities, virtual assets, financial products or instruments. Regulatory authorities may restrict the trading of virtual asset-related ETFs to only investors who meet specified requirements. Any calculations or images in the article are for illustrative purposes only.
Investment involves risks and the value and income from securities may rise or fall. Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Please carefully consider your personal risk tolerance, and consult independent professional advice if necessary.