【招商證券·房地產】政策超預期，建議積極配置——銀保監會談保障剛需點評
摘要：“首付比例支持”提法超預期，前期因城施策政策改善、按揭改善基礎上，政策底進一步明朗。新型集中度提高即將出現，少數房企或迎來“幸福的煩惱”加持。“需求端等政策超預期改善+行業部分玩家下桌”組合下，繼續推薦"造血能力"強的高質量週轉公司【保利地產】【金地集團】【萬科A】，港股關注【龍湖集團】【華潤置地】等；在政策超預期改善背景下，加大配置現金流結構相對優勢的【中南建設】【金科股份】等；以及資源型獨特拿地模式【華僑城A】等。產業鏈估值修復：關注從設計、採購施工、交易環節、資產管理環節整體的產業鏈機會。如資產管理相關：物業關注【碧桂園服務】、【旭輝永升服務】、【保利物業】等；商管關注【華潤萬象生活】【星盛商業】等。
事件
據中國房地產網報導，10月21日銀保監會統計信息與風險監測部負責人劉忠瑞在國新辦舉行的新聞發佈會上強調“保障好剛需羣體信貸需求，在貸款首付比例和利率方面對首套房購房者予以支持。目前，銀行個人住房貸款中有90%以上都是首套房貸款
“首付比例支持”提法超預期，前期因城施策政策改善、按揭改善基礎上，政策底進一步明朗。銀保監會提及“保障好剛需羣體信貸需求。在貸款首付比例和利率方面對首套房購房者予以支持。目前，銀行個人住房貸款中有90%以上都是首套房貸款”。
新型集中度提高即將出現，少數房企或迎來“幸福的煩惱”加持。行業未來半年拿地會有改善但趨勢向下，一方面是“玩家下桌”繼續發酵，另外一方面是併購擠佔公開市場拿地。作爲結果，行業的集中度提高會以更創造價值的形式發酵（公開市場競爭環境改善下的利潤率改善+併購的更好資產和更好對價），少數房企“幸福的煩惱”，而過去的集中度提高更多依靠簡單粗暴地提高週轉和藉助外部槓桿。
配置建議
“需求端等政策超預期改善+行業部分玩家下桌”組合下，繼續推薦"造血能力"強的高質量週轉公司【保利地產】【金地集團】【萬科A】，港股關注【龍湖集團】【華潤置地】等；在政策超預期改善背景下，加大配置現金流結構相對優勢的【中南建設】【金科股份】等；以及資源型獨特拿地模式【華僑城A】等；
產業鏈估值修復：關注從設計、採購施工、交易環節、資產管理環節整體的產業鏈機會。如資產管理相關：物業關注【碧桂園服務】、【旭輝永升服務】、【保利物業】等；商管關注【華潤萬象生活】【星盛商業】等。
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