互聯網行業三季報前瞻：宏觀和政策影響將顯現
來源：華泰證券
看好增長前景和盈利韌性較好的個股
宏觀形勢放緩開始對電商和廣告等互聯網業務流產生影響。我們認爲監管正引導行業迴歸理性競爭，追求更高質量的長期增長。相比電商行業，網絡遊戲行業受到的宏觀影響較小，但監管收緊或將從4Q21開始對網絡遊戲行業產生影響。電商GMV和廣告支出增長隨整體宏觀形勢放緩。消費互聯網領域的競爭依然激烈，我們看好具有成本優勢的公司；幾家頭部互聯網公司正快速進軍人工智能和企業互聯網領域，以擴大長期可觸達市場。重點推薦：騰訊控股、阿裏巴巴、騰訊音樂、京東、網易、美團、嗶哩嗶哩和百度。
遊戲：優質內容和海外業務增長
根據伽馬數據，中國移動遊戲市場3Q21收入保持穩定增長，同比增長9.1%。中國自研遊戲的海外收入在3Q21同比增長28.2%，環比增長12.8%。我們預計騰訊和網易有望在3Q21保持穩定的遊戲收入增長，優質遊戲上線以及海外市場增長有望推動兩家公司的業績增長。但我們預計監管影響和高基數效應從4Q21開始將拖累增長。
電商：消費情緒疲軟令業績承壓
據國家統計局數據，2021年3季度實物商品網上零售額同比增長8.7%，主因消費情緒疲軟。可選消費品，如服裝，或比必需消費品受到的衝擊更大。考慮京東用戶羣持續擴大、核心產品品類市場份額持續上升及平臺收入不斷增長，我們預計京東能更好地度過宏觀放緩期。我們認爲阿裏巴巴目前17倍FY22預測PE估值不高。阿裏巴巴的多應用戰略（淘寶特價版、閒魚、淘菜菜等）有助阿裏巴巴擴大用戶羣，強化其獲取消費者生命週期價值的能力。市場對拼多多的收入寄予厚望，期待其能保持強勁的收入增長，呈現市場份額持續上升趨勢。
在線廣告和娛樂：面臨短期增長壓力
我們預計3Q21在線廣告收入增長放緩，原因是1）閃屏廣告整改，2）教育行業廣告主削減廣告預算；3）低基數效應逐漸減弱。娛樂行業監管加強以及競爭加劇也影響了社交娛樂平臺的利潤率，我們預計這種影響將在2H21和2022年持續。
人工智能和企業互聯網：長期增長動力
數字化趨勢可能是互聯網公司的長期增長動力。騰訊、阿裏巴巴、百度和京東正加強企業互聯網和人工智能業務的發展，幫助企業提升效率和節約成本，從而在長期擴大總可觸達市場。雖然宏觀環境疲軟可能會給核心廣告收入增長帶來一些阻力，但百度的人工智能和自動駕駛新業務已經建立起可見度更高的競爭優勢，有望成爲百度長期收入和盈利增長的動力。Apollo和百度雲約佔我們對百度目標估值的47%，我們預計這些業務的強勁發展有望提振市場情緒，支持百度估值提升。
風險提示：消費進一步放緩；競爭加劇；監管不利因素。
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