輝立證券:維持安踏體育(2020.HK)增持評級 目標價17.89港元
輝立證券研究部發表研究報吿指,安踏體育(2020.HK)上半年業績較盈喜數據佳,公司在三月份完成DTC(Direct-To-Consumer,直面消費者)轉型計劃,時間較原先預期為早,在上半年流水優秀表現的基礎下,若果下半年增長速度略為放緩,仍然能夠達到管理層的指引,予目標價17.89港元,維持“增持”評級。
該行表示,DTC業務經營利潤率為中單位數,未來隨着店效提升,有望進一步改善。國內疫情反覆,加上洪水影響,下半年經營環境有所改變,零售流水有所放緩,但管理層維持先前的全年流水增長指引。在上半年流水優秀表現的基礎下,若果下半年增長速度略為放緩,仍然能夠達到管理層的指引。
該行預期,安踏下半年淨利潤率面對較大壓力,主要影響因素包括:下半年的折扣率未能維持上半年的水平;安踏奧運廣吿的投入,主要在下半年的銷售費用中反映;安踏主品牌的人工成本和租金成本上升。安踏上半年業績表現亮眼,但下半年零售環境轉變,預期影響下半年的盈利能力,加上公司在公佈DTC業務數據後,盈利能力較先前預期為低,調整公司未來的毛利率和費用率,以反映公司DTC轉型的影響。
該行下調公司2021、2022及2023年的每股盈利至2.97、3.8及4.82元人民幣,而風險因素包括國內疫情反覆,以及DTC盈利能力改善的情況未如理想。

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