電驅動：下一個萬億長坡厚雪賽道
來源：中金點睛
新能源汽車電驅動系統單車價值量超萬元，全球市場空間超萬億元，有望成爲繼動力電池系統之後的第二個長坡厚雪賽道。
電驅動系統的單體部件優化和集成化是發展方向，我們看好獨立第三方電驅動系統供應商快速崛起的機會，建議關注具有技術領先優勢和快速迭代能力的企業。
電驅動系統單車價值量超萬元，全球市場空間超萬億元，華爲、寧德時代相繼入局。
隨着電池技術的進步，新能源汽車行業的焦點從續航轉向了對整車動力性能、操控體驗的追求。電驅動系統成爲新能源汽車的核心繫統，單車價值量超萬元。
按照全球每年近億輛汽車的銷量計算，電驅動系統市場空間超過萬億元。
華爲、寧德時代已經相繼佈局電驅動，我們認爲，電驅動產業鏈有望與新能源汽車上行週期形成共振，是下一個萬億市場的大賽道。
系統集成化、工藝優化、材料量價齊升是三大投資主線。
目前電驅動系統的技術升級，分爲系統和部件兩個層面。我們認爲，系統層面的集成化具有降低成本、提高效率、優化車企流程等諸多優勢，是產業升級的必由之路，見效也最快；部件層面的工藝優化，例如扁線電機、SiC模組替代、油冷電機等技術變化，可以實現對應單體部件的降本增效；材料端例如永磁體、硅鋼片等，在部件銷量和單體價值量共振之下，有望迎來量價齊升。
自供+外採長期共存，獨立第三方電驅動系統供應商或將成爲市場主力。
我們認爲，電驅動系統的集成化趨勢，符合主機廠對於降本增、優化體系、整車架構演進等方面的訴求。集成化從硬件融合向電氣融合、芯片融合快速演進，主機廠供應鏈也越來越開放。
我們認爲，具有技術積累、客戶資源等方面優勢的企業將佔據較大市場份額，以特斯拉爲代表的主機廠自供體系和以匯川技術、英搏爾、欣銳科技等爲代表的獨立集成供應商將長期共存；而隨着整車市場快速起量以及技術迭代的加速，自供獨立供應商有望成爲市場的主力參與者。
風險：新能源汽車銷量不及預期，電驅動系統集成化進度不及預期。
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